Wednesday, September 19, 2007

How good are they?

Most teams have played three games and some have only played two, but certain teams have already separate themselves from the pack.
But just how good are they? They might be good enough to compete for a region title, but are they good enough to make it to the Georgia Dome for the semifinals? Or is a first or second round exit likely.
Here's a quick look at some of the Bi-City's contenders and their chances come November when the playoffs begin.

Carver (2-0)
The Tigers are the top ranked team in the Associated Press poll and has beaten Shaw. They also shut out Spencer, which is starting to look like a good win. But even with so many talented players, including DeRon Furr and Jarmon Forston, I have some questions.
Having seen them play both games, I have witnessed them make a lot of mistakes. In the playoffs, you are not going to win many games when you commit 14 penalties. Carver did that against Shaw in its 29-7 win.
Also, at times, the Tigers appeared tired and out of shape. I'll chalk that up to it being the early season.
The Tigers are going to win game after game until the end of October. Like everyone else, I will learn more about Carver on Oct. 27 when it plays LaGrange.
If Tigers win that game, they'll lock up the region title and have a good draw for the playoffs. They wouldn't be tested until the quarterfinals when they'd likely play the top seed from Region 6-AAA, which will likely be Carrollton.
So their chances of being in the Dome are 60 percent.

Shaw (2-1)
The Raiders still have to play LaGrange and that will determine whether they are third -- like last season -- or have the chance to finish as high as No. 1.
No matter where Shaw finishes, opposing teams aren't going to want to play them in the playoffs. With a solid defense and running backs Kyle Griswould and Bryan Willis, they are dangerous. Shaw didn't play a home game in the playoffs and made it to the state final.
Willis and Griswould give the Raiders a chance against anyone. Well, that is if Shaw doesn't turn the ball over a bunch of times like it did against Carver.
Shaw's chances of making it to the Dome 45 percent. It's hard to win quarterfinal road games. But the Raiders know how to.

Central-Phenix City (2-1)
Last week, I would have said that the Red Devils had a chance to win a couple of playoff games. Following a loss to Auburn High when they didn't stop the run, I'm not sure if the Red Devils will be able to make it out of the first round.
Plus, Central still has plenty of work to do before it can start talking about the playoffs. A win against Enterprise will get the Red Devils heading in the right direction.
Chances of making the semifinals: 3 percent.

Brookstone (2-1)
Many of the Cougars' flaws were present in last week's 34-14 loss to Dooly County. Brookstone turned it over four times. There aren't a lot of teams that can do that and win. The Cougars also struggle against very athletic teams.
The Cougars will finish first or second and their draw will determine their postseason success. If they win the region, they likely play Seminole County or Clinch County in the second round. Both teams are athletic. Brookstone lost 28-13 to Clinch County in the 2005 first round, but it was 7-0 at the half.
So their chances of making the Dome: 5 percent.

Pacelli (3-0)
I knew the Vikings were good. I just didn't know that they were this good. Stuart Wilkerson is having a great season, throwing eight touchdowns and only one interception in the first three games.
His improvement might be the difference.
Pacelli could very well be 9-0 when it play cross-town rival Brookstone for the Region 4-A championship.
A win would give them another region title and another unbeaten season. Unlike 2003 and 2004, Pacelli will try to avoid a second-round loss.
Pacelli isn't going to sneak up on anyone this season, like the Vikings may have last year.
So their chances of making the Dome: 10 percent.

Glenwood (3-1)
The Gators have one thing that will prevent them from winning the AISA Class AAA title. The one thing is Bessemer, the defending state champs.
Glenwood lost 27-0 to Bessemer a couple of weeks ago and won't beat them if they meet again.
The Gators' chances of getting to state final is pretty good, but they can't win it.
So chances of making the final are 60 percent.

What local team has the best chance of winning a state title? Is there some other team not on the radar yet that can make some noise?

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